A few weeks ago, Amadeus Consulting CIO John Basso made his 2011 technology predictions, as well as some predictions on Windows Phone 7. Being good friends, I’d like to comment on a few of his predictions and provide some additional thoughts and insight.

Windows Phone 7

I do have very high hopes for Windows® Phone 7 in terms of strength and capability, but you have remember that this comes through the same marketing team that has had over 30 names for essentially the same product over the last few years. This includes Palm-sized PC, Pocket PC, Windows CE, Windows CE .NET, Windows Embedded CE, Windows Mobile, and Windows Phone 7, which are all basically different versions of the same product.

This is a big confusing mess full of good technology that was way ahead of its time. John is completely correct about the technology surrounding Windows Phone 7, as well as the corporate and consumer advantages. But the guys that created the mess you see above you might just do it again, and even though they are spending over half a billion dollars promoting the phone, I’d be a bit hesitant to say it will be the #2 by 2012.

Of course, it has that potential, and I can definitely see it taking a solid #3 position, but I think it has a lot more ground to cover from a marketing perspective to take it further. But then again, a lot of the iPhone™ and Android™ popularity is driven by a great amount of support from independent developers (Angry Birds, anyone?) which also helps drive sales. Since Windows Phone 7 will have a lot of support, especially through XBOX 360 tie-ins, as Window Phone 7 app developers get behind it. Windows Phone 7 could begin to take off a lot over the next year as iPhone and Android contracts begin to expire and people want to get a new phone, though I’d guess it will take a bit longer.

Cloud Computing

John predicted that many businesses and companies will begin to actually convert to the cloud starting in 2011, and begin to outsource much more of their IT infrastructure. I definitely agree but would like to expand on it to include consumers as well.

Consumers will also begin to take advantage of cloud services. Microsoft® especially has begun integrating most of its services through the cloud, meaning that a user can upload something through one device and then download it or view it instantly on any other connected device.

Google™ is going to the cloud as well, especially with its new Chrome OS, which is powered exclusively through the web. It will be interesting to see if people find value in that, or if they will prefer a more local OS. Along with this Google has also launched a web app store through Chrome, which basically lets developers publish and distribute web applications much like they would for iPhone apps.

High Speed Connectivity

In the past, Internet connectivity was a major issue, as an Internet connection is vital to many aspects of modern life. Now we are seeing a new focus on increasing the speed of those connections in order to allow access to more multi-media web services.

As John pointed out, new bandwidth availability will also help when developing faster networks, although it may be another year or so before we really see commercialized products that take advantage of this. But for now we are stuck with a debate on "how fast is fast enough."

Of course my phone is now faster than a 56k modem, but I’m not sure streaming video is going to just fly on it now, and since I just got a 3G phone I probably won’t upgrade to a 4G phone until 2012. Although, as it turns out, most 4G isn’t 4G (even Verizon’s recently announced 4G network isn’t true 4G speeds), and most broadband isn’t actually broadband, so we still have a lot of room for improvement.

Computers everywhere

John predicted that "As high speed Internet connectivity improves, combined with improved data collection software systems, these devices will be able to transmit real time information to data centers and allow for improved data collection." While I would like to point out that John’s house has a lot more computers than my parent’s house (John’s house calls him if there is water in the basement), he’s right. Even my parents have a dozen or so computers.

Computers do not need to be just laptops, desktops or smartphones. Now even our thermostats, refrigerators, and home medical systems are able to monitor data, make decisions, and report the results and changes. It is incredible how smart everything we use has become, and we’ve only just started trying to collect this data.

Privacy and Data Monitoring

I agree with John on this, and I think one of the big challenges facing technologists is explaining this issue to society as a whole so they can react intelligently based on the facts without knee-jerk reactions based on sensational media stories.

There are places and times where data monitoring is extremely useful, and provides all kinds of benefits. However, if that same data is misused or mishandled, then it becomes a challenging privacy and security issue. There is a delicate balance between the two and it is challenging to find the right solution that will work in broader situations. With so much focus on data privacy and security recently, I expect some major legislation in 2011 concerning how data is handled, stored, and used.

Hopefully the main point that arises from all of this is that companies will become more transparent when disclosing what data is gathered and how that data is used, so that individuals can knowingly opt-in or opt-out.

Power Concerns

As John said, power consumption is surpassing speed as the most important frontier in processor design. This is increasingly important as battery power is not improving as quickly as processing power, and power consumption becomes a major cost issue for data centers as more people migrate to the cloud for hosting, computing, and data storage.

The next year will be a good year for introducing new types of efficient power systems, and power control devices. I also think that a lot of the innovation will come from understanding how power is used, and using more intelligent data analysis systems to design new distribution and production methods that will reduce waste.

Proliferation of Mobile Data

More than anything, I would say that there will be more of an "integration" of mobile data. This is where Microsoft’s Windows Phone 7 is poised to excel, for example, if they can figure out how to get that message to potential users.

But yes, many companies are thriving because they have been successful at using custom mobile applications or piggybacking on existing apps and services (like Foursquare or Layar, for example), in order reach their customers and drive sales.

This will only increase as mobile devices continue to thrive, and become better "integrated" into the technology we already use. By integration, I mean using it as a part of existing marketing and productivity tasks, rather than keeping it as its own stand-alone service. As people begin to understand how to use mobile data and devices, they will understand how to use that data to enhance existing processes.

Rethinking Outsourcing

Being an "experienced domestic developer", I hope John is correct in his predictions that many companies are seeing greater value in domestic development and beginning to move off-shored projects back to the US. Over the years, we have seen offshore prices skyrocket; even though domestic prices for development have remained fairly steady.

I don’t know if 2011 will be the year that a major shift occurs, but most companies are at least starting to find that the cost differences between off-shore and domestic development are not that great. Of course, no matter who you choose, you should carefully screen any development company to ensure that they have the skill and experience to tackle your project.

Treating Data Seriously

I definitely agree with John here. As I previously mentioned, 2011 will be a big year for transforming how we gather and manage data. What most companies miss is the potential to gather and analyze massive amounts of data in real time. This could be for external processes, such as product sales, or for key internal processes.

In either case, as companies start to manage the data they already have, and integrate new technologies for helping gather and manage new kinds of data, they will be surprised at the wealth of information available to them.

There are many tools available for data processing and management, and I expect the demand for these types of tools to increase in the coming year.

Silverlight

Silverlight® is awesome, so I’m going to blame the Microsoft marketing machine again (If you haven’t noticed, I’m not confident that their marketing team realizes the power and innovation in many of their products). They need to go on the offensive and push the multimedia capabilities of this technology—it blows Flash® away in so many ways, including its adaptive streaming and deep zoom capabilities. I like Flash too, but Silverlight is much more of a complete platform. (For example, here is one Silverlight application we designed for a client that I would not want to try in Flash).

Silverlight is also an integral part of Windows Phone 7, which may help it become even more mainstream. Silverlight is based off of .NET which makes it accessible to many developers, although there is a large and growing pool of developers who specialize in Silverlight as well. This gives it a huge potential to grow and is currently being quietly used in many amazing technologies (like Netflix), though you rarely notice it because it just works so well.

Tablets

I think 2011 is going to be the year of the tablet—look for alternatives to the iPad™ to gain market share and to challenge Apple®, especially when other mobile phone carriers in the US look to gain customers with subsidized tablets.

Also, as I’ve talked about before, one of the most important aspects of tablets and any mobile technology is that software behind it. For example, imagine the iPhone without the "app". If it only came with the software that was preloaded on it, it wouldn’t be nearly as fantastic.

I’d really like to see 2011 become the year that developers and publishers really figure out how to create apps for tablet devices that can turn them into productivity and creation devices. There are a few such apps out there that are really good, and I think that in 2011 more people will begin to realize the potential for such devices and make tablet apps that help meet that potential.

What do you see for 2011?

Of course, some of the best ideas and innovations of 2011 will come from you. What will you create in 2011? If you’d like to discuss a unique product or technology idea, we’d love to hear from you! As a custom technology company, we have a broad range of skills and experience that can help you bring your idea to reality.