2012 Tech Predictions: Tech Giants Will Learn to Walk Softly

Every decade or so a new industry emerges that changes the entire game. From these, monolithic companies were formed that dominated the industry and whose actions impacted surrounding industries. In the US we have seen examples of this in Standard Oil, US Steel, AT&T (before it was broken up) as well as many other industries.

We saw this also occur in the case of Microsoft, who started as a specialized company that basically created its own industry. As Microsoft grew so did hundreds of companies dependent on it, and as Microsoft grew so did its impact on surrounding industries. But at some point Microsoft stopped becoming a tech startup and matured into a tech giant. Errant words or actions could mean life or death for related businesses and its ability to impact or bankrupt niche competition rose to the point that government intervention was necessary.

Now we have two relatively new tech startups that have turned into technology giants: Google and Facebook. Just like Microsoft a many years ago, these companies have yet to fully realize or accept their role as dominant players in the market. And just like Microsoft, they will eventually learn, or be compelled to learn, the limits of what they can and cannot do.

With multiple forms of government investigation, oversight and interest it is likely that they will be compelled into behaving more nimbly. But with the negative publicity and potential reputation damage, even the threat of investigation could coerce them to be more careful.

That’s not to say that these companies intend to be disruptive. In fact, their actions are intentioned to provide improved and expanded services to customers. But they are also the very definition of monopolistic behavior, and they can severely disrupt or bankrupt entire industries simply by offering the same services for free – something that Google and Facebook frequently do.

2012 Technology Predictions: Second wave of Automation

When computers first hit the market, their main purpose was to mimic normal office procedures and provide a boost to productivity. That mimicry became the paradigm of office computing, and we see it pretty much everywhere.

Forms, documents, email functionality, and even the keyboard itself copy the previous paradigms and simply provide a digital version. That was the first wave of automation.

The second wave of automation is already happening and it will become more distinct over the next few years. The second wave of automation is really about redesigning and optimizing the paradigms of the past.

The best example of this is in filling out government forms online. In the first wave of automation, forms were copied into a digital replica and placed online. This was practical as well as efficient because forms could be submitted digitally or manually and so records would need to be standardized.

But with the level of computer technology we have now, there is no reason to base forms of their analog version. Rather, it makes sense to build and fill forms dynamically based on the user needs. For example, to renew your car registration in the past you had to fill out a form (paper or digital) and submit it. Now you can just log on, give your name, select what vehicles to renew, and you are done. Everything else is handled automatically and the forms have no analog equivalent.

That is the second wave of automation. It is based on user profiles, and centered on optimization and the needs of the user. As we get closer to "real ID" Internet profiles, or companies focus more on usability, we’ll find that the standard forms cease to exist.

For an example of this in action, take a look at Amazon’s one click purchasing system. Over the next few years you’ll see it, and other systems like it, spread throughout the web and through mobile devices to make sure you’ll never have to fill out a form again.

The benefit for business – besides a better conversion rate and customer satisfaction – is that the back end of these forms is integrated into business intelligence systems which monitor an array of metrics related to performance and efficiency. For example, tracking time between steps helps identify areas for improvement and redesign.