Report Forecasts Falling House Prices for Next Five Years

The National Institute for Economic & Social Research (NIESR) has forecast that house prices will fall, in real terms, by about 8% over the next five years. After accounting for inflation, this means that house prices will be back at 2003 levels by 2015.

The figures show the average house price reaching £213,091 by 2015 - however to keep pace with inflation, that figure would need to be £231,000.

Mortgage Lending Up, Margins on Mortgages Increase

While it was reported today that mortgage lending for June was up by 15%, it was also noted that banks are not passing on cheaper loan rates to customers, with margins reaching a 20 year high.

Mortgage lending in June was boosted by the abolition of Home Information Packs, with lending up 15% to £13.1bn from £11.4bn in May. However, overall transaction levels are still low, with buyers constrained by the low level of available credit.

It appears that lenders are more interested in repairing their balance sheets than chasing new business. Consequently, margins on fixed-rate mortgages have reached a 20 year high as swap rates fall faster than the cost of mortgages.

The average 3 year fixed rate mortgage is 5.56% with the margin over swap rates reaching 3.11%.

House Prices Will Not Recover for a Decade

A new report from Price Waterhouse says that house prices in he UK will not recover for a decade and property should be viewed as a risky investment.

According to PwC, "housing is a risky asset that is not guaranteed to generate positive real returns in the future even though this has been the pattern in the past."

PwC warns that there is the strong possibility of prices falling for the next five years and could drop further beyond 2020.

RICS Expects House Prices to Fall

RICS is expecting to see a fall in house prices in the next few months, due to a rise in supply of houses on the market and a fall in the number of new buyers registering an interest.

More surveyors are now expecting a fall in prices that a rise, a change from the figures last month.

The number of new inquiries from buyers fell in July, the 2nd fall since October 2008. The rise in instructions has been driven mostly by the abolition of Home Information Packs (HIPS).

Mortgage Crunch for Borrowers

There are signs that mortgages are going to be harder to obtain over the next few months, as banks reign in their lending ton conserve cash.

A Bank of England survey shows that banks are planning to reduce the number of home loans they issue over the next few months. One of the MEPC members has warned of the economy being at a tipping point, with a renewal of recession very likely.