Find the Probability of Success for Any Online Home Based Business Opportunity

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  • Author Steve Be
  • Published December 9, 2011
  • Word count 1,153

Like baseball, if you miss all three, you are out.

You can not know what you do not know.

If it was indecision, there was something you could have done.

Peter Drucker defines opportunity this way:

"Opportunity in the market place is because of a process of convergence of forces that were previously not together.

The essential forces Peter Drucker did not individually identify as converging will be enumerated and discussed in this article.

This article will describe these five essential forces that must be in place for any online home based business opportunity to be successful.

They are universal, abstract, and independent of business type.

A simple analytical method to evaluate these essential elements and arrive at a numerical figure of merit will be presented.

You will arrive at a numerical rating for the relative strength for the Probability of Success (S) for any online home based business opportunity you care to evaluate.

This will remove emotion from the decision process.

All five forces must be present simultaneously.

They must all be in the right place at the right time to create a successful online home based business opportunity.

They are like the spokes in a wagon wheel.

Each factor dramatically affects the success of any online home based business opportunity.

If there is no convergence, there is nothing you can do to make the business a success.

Opportunity presents itself only when all these forces are in simultaneous alignment.

The order in which they are presented is no indication of their relative values.

This method is not buried in concrete.

When you finally establish a value, stick with it.

For example, if you decide leadership has a maximum value of 2 or 5, stick with it on any online home based business opportunity you wish to evaluate.

In this case, Leadership has been arbitrarily assigned a maximum value of 2.

A viable online home based business opportunity must have very deep pockets or be owned by a company with very deep pockets, preferably a parent company that has already gone through the growth cycle and has the funds to support the new growth.

Products (D) (Maximum = 20)

Leading Edge Product Technology (Maximum = 5)

R&D

Proprietary (No other place to get it)

Competitive

Product Quality (Maximum = 5)

Quality, like Reliability, must be built into the design and process.

Product Fills a Recognizable Need (Maximum = 5)

There should be a clear need for your product or service.

There may be very little demand for 78 rpm vinyl records.

Trends (R) (Maximum = 20)

Demographic Trends (Maximum = 10)

As individuals, we can not create a demographic trend.

The "Baby Boomers" are the largest market in history.

When the first of these babies were born, a powerful demand for baby products materialized.

As these babies started shaving, Gillette started making huge profits.

As these babies began to have babies, the Mini-Van became desirable.

Economic Trends (Maximum = 10)

Individuals do not create an economic trend.

Real estate is sensitive to interest rates.

Cosmetics, on the other hand, are virtually immune to economic downtrends and would be assigned a high number.

If your online home based business opportunity is immune to economic trends assign a high number.

In an online home based business opportunity, the mantra is Timing, Timing, and Timing.

Timing, like trends, is also beyond your control.

There is nothing you can do to improve timing.

If timing is present assign a high number based upon the following criteria.

Formulation Phase: (Maximum = 20)

This is the phase where research and development are just completed.

This region is characterized by slow, deliberate growth.

It is defined as the region of the growth curve where income from sales is less than $50 million per year.

It requires forethought and knowledge.

It requires due diligence on your part to study the online home based business opportunity and arrive at your estimate of the strength of the five essential force ingredients of a successful online business venture.

B.

This is the point which will determine " When".

From this point onward, the curve rises ever so steeply.

If you are not on board at this time, your online home based business opportunity will quickly leave you behind.

C.

If you have exercised your desire, ability, and motivation, you have already become a participant before your online home based business opportunity reaches momentum.

There is nothing you can do to stop the momentum which is now building beneath you.

It is like a giant wave that carries you to the pinnacle of success.

For example, you could buy Microsoft stock now, but the big opportunity is already over and it will never come back again.

If you find your online home based business opportunity near the top of the curve, near stabilization (defined below), assign timing a number closer to one.

Stabilization

This is the area where the exponential growth has died out.

Sales are good, but sales are not increasing exponentially.

The curve is relatively flat, and growth has slowed to a value similar to the development phase.

It is passed.

There is no online home based business opportunity.

Compensation (K) (Maximum = 20)

Leverage (Maximum = 10)

If you trade time for money, you will never get ahead by investing one increment of your time for one increment of income.

You will get by, but you will never get ahead.

That is done by leveraging yourself.

Paul Getty stated this clearly when he said:

"I had rather have one percent of a hundred people's efforts than 100% of my own efforts".

g.

If you can leverage yourself, assign a number closer to 10.

Override (1)

If you receive override compensation on the efforts of others, assign a value of 1, otherwise zero.

Residual (2)

If you can build your equity to the point that you have residual compensation from your previous efforts, assign a value of 2.

Define the Possibility for Success (P) as being totally dependent upon the sum of the five prime forces required for a successful business (above).

The only thing you will do is evaluate each ingredient and assign it a strength value.

Assign each one of the five ingredients a value from zero to 20 according to the instructions presented above.

) You have determined all the values for C, D, R, T, and K.

Add up all five of your separate evaluations.

Let M be limited to a number between zero and one with zero being the worst case and one being the best case.

Determine this multiplier number by self-evaluating your desire, ability, and motivation.

Too many people say "I don't have the time.

Successful people do not have time---they make time.

But unto thine own self be true.

The probability for success is 100 percent.

It is no longer a question of "If".

Get on board this online home based business opportunity fast

Use this procedure one each online home based business opportunity that you wish to evaluate and compare.

To find out more about an opportunity please check out this website: http://tinyurl.com/3hc6gmr

I am an internet entrepreneur and article marketer.

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