May 8, 2025 — The Golden State Warriors stunned the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 1 of their second-round NBA playoff series, securing a 99–88 road victory at Target Center despite losing Stephen Curry to a hamstring strain early in the second quarter. Buddy Hield, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green stepped up with clutch performances, while Minnesota’s dismal 5-of-29 three-point shooting and sloppy transition play dug a hole they couldn’t escape. With Game 2 looming on Thursday, the Timberwolves face a must-win to avoid a 2–0 deficit heading to Golden State. Here’s our analysis and prediction for this critical matchup.

Game 1 Recap

The Warriors showcased their depth and defensive tenacity in Game 1, using a zone defense to stifle Minnesota’s perimeter game. Hield led with 24 points (5-of-8 from three), Butler delivered 20 points, 11 rebounds, and 8 assists, and Green added 18 points, including four first-half threes. Golden State’s hustle and 12-player rotation overwhelmed the Wolves, who missed their first 16 three-point attempts and trailed by 23 late in the third. Anthony Edwards battled back with 23 points and 14 rebounds, but his 9-of-22 shooting and a quiet first half (1 point) reflected Minnesota’s offensive struggles. Naz Reid (19 points) and Julius Randle (16 points) provided scoring, but the Wolves’ 17.2% three-point shooting and poor transition decisions (noted as “diabolical” by coach Chris Finch) sealed their fate.

Key Matchups

Anthony Edwards vs. Jimmy Butler: Edwards struggled early against Butler’s physical defense, scoring just 1 point in the first half. His second-half surge showed his potential, but Butler’s versatility (defending, rebounding, playmaking) gives Golden State an edge. Edwards must attack early and hit from deep (2-of-7 in Game 1) to shift momentum.

Rudy Gobert vs. Warriors’ Zone Defense: Gobert’s 14 rebounds and 4 blocks in Game 1 were negated by Golden State’s zone, which pulled him out of the paint. Minnesota needs Gobert to dominate boards and protect the rim while avoiding pick-and-roll mismatches.

Buddy Hield vs. Timberwolves’ Perimeter Defense: Hield’s 5-of-8 three-point shooting exploited Minnesota’s slow rotations. If Jaden McDaniels can’t close out faster, Hield could again be a difference-maker, especially with Curry questionable.

X-Factors

Stephen Curry’s Status: Curry’s hamstring strain makes his availability uncertain. If he plays limited minutes or sits out, the Warriors will rely on Hield, Butler, and Jonathan Kuminga to carry the offense. A healthy Curry, even at 75%, could tilt the game heavily in Golden State’s favor.

Timberwolves’ Three-Point Shooting: Minnesota’s 5-of-29 from three was a disaster, far below their 38.9% regular-season average (per 2024–25 trends). Randle and Reid need to stretch the floor to counter Golden State’s zone.

Transition Play: Finch criticized Minnesota’s “diabolical” transition decisions, which led to 14 Warriors points off turnovers. Cleaner ball-handling and faster breaks could unlock Edwards’ explosiveness.

Prediction

The Timberwolves have their backs against the wall, and playing at home should ignite their crowd and boost their energy. Edwards is likely to come out aggressive, and Randle could rebound with a bigger scoring night (projected 20+ points). Improved three-point shooting (closer to 35%) and better transition play give Minnesota a fighting chance. However, the Warriors’ depth, defensive versatility, and clutch play make them formidable, even without Curry. Hield’s hot shooting (projected 20+ points) and Butler’s all-around impact (near triple-double) should keep Golden State in control. If Curry plays, the Warriors pull away late; if not, it’s a tighter contest, but their system prevails.

Prediction: Warriors 105, Timberwolves 100. Golden State takes a 2–0 lead, but Minnesota keeps it close.