We feel that the following players are unlikely to earn their ADP (average draft value).

QUARTERBACKS

Ryan, Matt ATL

He's been going in the sixth round of many drafts, and that's too early. He absolutely has the talent, but the Falcons like to run so much, there should be many games where Ryan fails to top 200 yards and one score.

Cutler, Jay CHI

He's not in Denver anymore. His best receivers are his tight end and running back now. The Bears will still try to rely on their running game and defense. Cutler shouldn't be drafted before many of the quarterbacks he's being drafted before.

RUNNING BACKS

Tomlinson, LaDainian SD

Yes, he could very well bounce back for one great comeback year. He's aging, and he proved last year that injuries can derail him now. I just can't take that kind of chance in the middle of my first round.

Westbrook, Brian PHI

The Eagles drafted LeSean McCoy this past summer for insurance. When Westbrook gets hurt this year, the Eagles will rest him and barely skip a beat.

Smith, Kevin DET

He's a great, great back, but you don't burn a second round pick on a Lions running back when they'll be playing from behind constantly. He could make up for it in PPR leagues, but still, I wouldn't take him until Round 4.

Thomas, Pierre NO

People are writing him off because of his injury and the crowded backfield, but he has the potential to provide great value if you can snag him in the fifth round.

Addai, Joseph IND

He won't hold off the rookie Donald Brown enough to earn his ADP.

Jones, Thomas NYJ

They'll use Leon Washington more anyway, but Jones overachieved last year, and this year opponents will stack the box if/when the rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez can't stretch the field for Jones.

Lewis, Jamal CLE

He's toast, pure and simple. The Browns will turn to a combination of Jerome Harrison and James Davis before long.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Owens, Terrell BUF

If things go south in Buffalo, Owens could get pretty worthless pretty fast. Really, how well can a guy with his personality take being blown out often?

Edwards, Braylon CLE

Quinn's arm isn't strong enough to take advantage of Edwards. He'll be a terribly inconsistent fantasy wide receiver.

Williams, Roy DAL

He could pan out, but I wouldn't waste a fourth round pick on him to find out if he will or not. Jason Witten should overshadow him in fantasy football.

Bryant, Antonio TB

He is okay to nab in the seventh or eighth rounds, but he's being drafted before that based on last year's numbers. Byron Leftwich is an awful quarterback, and the Bucs will try and run the ball as much as possible.

TIGHT ENDS

Gonzalez, Tony ATL

Okay, so he won't be a bust in the true sense of the word, but people expecting him to duplicate last year's numbers would be mistaken. Michael Turner and Roddy White will see to it that his numbers decline in 2009.

Winslow, Kellen TB

He can't stay healthy. His quarterback is byron Leftwich. He's on a team with a serious run-first attitude. Need any more reasons?

KICKERS

Gostkowski, Stephen NE

He's just simply being drafted too early. You don't take kickers in the tenth round. You wait.

Gould, Robble CHI

New Bears quarterback Jay Cutler will see to it that Gould has very inconsistent opportunities from game to game with his turnovers and poor decisions.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Steelers, Pittsburgh

They're just simply being drafted too early. You don't take a defense in the eighth round. You wait.

Jets, New York

Great talent, but there's a chance that their rookie quarterback will struggle. If so, they'll end up tired being on the field too long.