What Happens if Houthi vs US Led Operations takes another turn involving Russia and China? Regional wide impact.

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  • Author Dalab, Ahmed
  • Published March 29, 2024
  • Word count 1,462

What Happens if Houthi vs US Led Operations takes another turn involving Russia and China? Regional wide impact.

Overall, terrorist organizations like Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and Somali pirates stand to benefit from the aftermath of a broader regional conflict, as they capitalize on the resulting instability, power vacuums, and weakened governance structures to expand their influence, secure funding, recruit new members, and carry out violent activities. Efforts to prevent or mitigate such outcomes should be a priority in conflict resolution and post-conflict reconstruction efforts in the region.even more difficult to reach a peaceful resolution to the conflict. It could also lead to increased civilian casualties and further humanitarian crisis in the country.

This move could also further complicate the already complex situation in Yemen, making it In a broader regional conflict involving countries like Djibouti, Somalia, and the Houthis, terrorist organizations like Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and Somali pirates could potentially benefit from the aftermath in several ways:

  1. Expansion of influence: During times of conflict and instability, terrorist organizations often find opportunities to expand their influence and recruit new members. In the chaos of a regional conflict, groups like AQAP and Al-Shabaab in Somalia could exploit power vacuums and weak governance to increase their presence and control.

  2. Funding and resources: Conflict zones are prime environments for terrorist organizations to secure funding through illicit activities such as weapons trafficking, smuggling, and extortion. Somali pirates, for example, could take advantage of disrupted maritime trade routes to engage in piracy and ransom kidnappings for financial gain.

  3. Recruitment and radicalization: The turmoil and grievances arising from a regional conflict could fuel resentment and radicalization among marginalized populations, leading to increased recruitment by terrorist groups seeking to exploit these vulnerabilities.

  4. Destabilization of the region: Terrorist organizations thrive in areas of instability and insecurity, using violence and chaos to further their agendas. The aftermath of a regional conflict could create fertile ground for these groups to sow further discord and carry out attacks against vulnerable populations.

Countries like Djibouti and Somalia would likely be directly impacted by a broader regional conflict that involves the Houthis gaining advanced military support from countries like Russia and China. Here are some ways in which these countries could be affected:

  1. Increased tension and instability: The influx of advanced weapon systems to the Houthis may lead to an escalation of conflict in the region, potentially sparking violence and instability in neighboring countries like Djibouti and Somalia.

  2. Proxy warfare: The Houthis, as an Iranian proxy in the region, could be used by Russia and China to carry out their interests in the Middle East. This could further exacerbate existing conflicts and contribute to a complex web of proxy warfare in the region.

  3. Displacement of populations: A broader regional conflict involving powerful state actors could lead to large-scale displacement of populations in Djibouti and Somalia, as civilians flee violence and seek safety in neighboring countries.

  4. Economic repercussions: The disruption of trade routes and economic activities in the region could have severe economic consequences for countries like Djibouti and Somalia, which rely heavily on trade and commerce for their economic stability.

  5. Humanitarian crisis: The escalation of conflict in the region could lead to a worsening humanitarian crisis, with shortages of food, water, and medical supplies affecting vulnerable populations in Djibouti and Somalia.

In conclusion, a broader regional conflict involving the Houthis gaining military support from countries like Russia and China could have serious implications for countries like Djibouti and Somalia, leading to increased tension, instability, displacement of populations, economic repercussions, and a humanitarian crisis. Efforts to prevent such a scenario should be prioritized to ensure the safety and well-being of the people in the region.

In a broader regional conflict involving countries like Djibouti, Somalia, and the Houthis, terrorist organizations like Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and Somali pirates could potentially benefit from the aftermath in several ways:

  1. Expansion of influence: During times of conflict and instability, terrorist organizations often find opportunities to expand their influence and recruit new members. In the chaos of a regional conflict, groups like AQAP and Al-Shabaab in Somalia could exploit power vacuums and weak governance to increase their presence and control.

  2. Funding and resources: Conflict zones are prime environments for terrorist organizations to secure funding through illicit activities such as weapons trafficking, smuggling, and extortion. Somali pirates, for example, could take advantage of disrupted maritime trade routes to engage in piracy and ransom kidnappings for financial gain.

  3. Recruitment and radicalization: The turmoil and grievances arising from a regional conflict could fuel resentment and radicalization among marginalized populations, leading to increased recruitment by terrorist groups seeking to exploit these vulnerabilities.

  4. Destabilization of the region: Terrorist organizations thrive in areas of instability and insecurity, using violence and chaos to further their agendas. The aftermath of a regional conflict could create fertile ground for these groups to sow further discord and carry out attacks against vulnerable populations.

Overall, terrorist organizations like Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and Somali pirates stand to benefit from the aftermath of a broader regional conflict, as they capitalize on the resulting instability, power vacuums, and weakened governance structures to expand their influence, secure funding, recruit new members, and carry out violent activities. Efforts to prevent or mitigate such outcomes should be a priority in conflict resolution and post-conflict reconstruction efforts in the region.

In a scenario where the conflict in Yemen involving the Houthis escalates and leads to weapons trafficking to Somalia, there are several related effects and potential risks that could arise:

  1. Weapons trafficking: Weapons trafficking from Yemen to Somalia could involve the transfer of advanced weaponry, including anti-aircraft systems, missiles, rockets, and drones. These weapons could significantly enhance the capabilities of terrorist organizations like Al-Shabaab in Somalia and ISIS in northern regions such as Puntland.

  2. Increased security threats: The influx of advanced weaponry to terrorist organizations in Somalia could pose a significant security threat to neighboring countries such as Kenya and Ethiopia. These weapons could be used to conduct more sophisticated and lethal attacks, targeting both civilian populations and security forces in the region.

  3. Regional destabilization: The proliferation of advanced weaponry to terror groups in Somalia could fuel further instability in the region, leading to increased violence, displacement of populations, and economic disruptions. This could have far-reaching consequences for regional security and stability.

  4. Cross-border terrorism: The presence of well-armed terrorist organizations in Somalia, equipped with advanced weaponry from Yemen, could lead to cross-border terrorism activities targeting neighboring countries. Kenya and Ethiopia would face heightened security risks along their borders with Somalia, as these groups may launch attacks or carry out incursions into their territories.

  5. Counterterrorism challenges: The escalation of conflict and increased availability of advanced weaponry in Somalia would pose significant challenges for counterterrorism efforts in the region. Security forces in Kenya and Ethiopia would need to enhance their intelligence-gathering capabilities, improve border security measures, and strengthen cooperation to effectively combat the threat posed by well-armed terrorist groups.

Overall, the trafficking of advanced weaponry from Yemen to Somalia could have significant security implications for the region, with heightened risks of terrorism, destabilization, and cross-border threats. Efforts to prevent weapons trafficking, strengthen border security, and enhance counterterrorism cooperation are essential to address these risks and mitigate the potential consequences of such a scenario.

China plays a crucial role in the global oil market and could have a significant impact on the scenario of Russia allying with the Houthis to mount pressure against the West over the Ukraine Dilemma.

As one of the largest consumers of oil in the world, China has a vested interest in maintaining stable oil supplies and ensuring access to oil markets. Any disruption in oil supply routes, such as a shutdown of the Red Sea trade route, could potentially affect China's energy security.

In the event of a complete shutdown of the Red Sea trade route, China may seek to diversify its oil sources and transportation routes to mitigate potential risks. This could involve increasing imports from other oil-producing countries or exploring alternative transportation routes such as the Northern Sea Route or pipelines.

Additionally, China may also play a diplomatic role in mediating tensions between Russia and the West to prevent further escalation that could impact global oil markets. China has strong economic ties with both Russia and Western countries and could potentially leverage its relationships to help find a peaceful resolution to any conflicts that arise.

Overall, China's involvement in the scenario of Russia allying with the Houthis and the potential shutdown of the Red Sea trade route would be significant, given its status as a major player in the global oil market and its interest in maintaining stable energy supplies.

By: Ahmed Dalab

Regional Expert/Risk Intelligence Consultant.

Somalia and Yemen.

Email: somresearch88@gmail.com

Dalab, Ahmed. Somali national. Regional expert. Risk intelligence consultant.

Email: somresearch88@gmail.com Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ahmeddalab/

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