An Analysis of the Political Landscape in Guatemala and Its Impact on Regional Stability

1. Introduction

Located in Central America, bordered by Mexico to the west and northwest, the Caribbean Sea to the east, Honduras to the southeast, and El Salvador to the south, Guatemala has long been regarded as the “crown jewel” of its area due to its diverse cultural richness, resource wealth, and favorable geostrategic position. Historically coveted by competing foreign powers, distinct political trajectories over the twentieth century instigated the transformation of Guatemala from one of the most developed and egalitarian regions in Latin America to the land of the “frozen revolution,” as characterized by Gabriel García Márquez. Despite the signing of a peace agreement in 1996 and an end to a brutal transnationally inspired protracted civil war, the peaceful coexistence of its diverse ethnic groups remains tenuous due to a disastrous political system marred with a host of problems, including corruption, inefficiency, impunity, inequity, lack of competitiveness, and ill-directed economic redistribution that stifle peaceful political and socio-economic development.

The discontent amongst the indigenous Mayan group growingly fed anti-system popular sentiments ignited during the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to the election of a populist president devoid of traditional political experience in 2020. However, his unprecedented intention to reshuffle the political and judicial elite was challenged by an unexpected seismic shift in the judiciary system, resulting in the crook being derailed from the original path of the burgeoning democracy. The initial rise of reformist hopes and the prospective survival of democracy in the face of opportunity and adversity horseshoeed. The failure of the political transition toward democracy in the 1980s stagnated the much-desired political and economic development of the country and the region as a whole for generations. The systemic corruption, violence, and political exclusion associated with the frozen revolution and subsequent military authoritarian regimes remain entrenched in the current political system through institutions designed for oppression and a well-cultivated political culture encouraging olive branch bipartisan cooperation. The present-day political reckoning in Guatemala is fundamentally shaped by the ill-devised political and judicial institutions left behind by the U.S.-sponsored dictatorships.

Guatemala has lacked a functioning system of checks and balances, undermining the feasibility of peaceful democratization and economically sustainable political and socio-economic development in the first place. A mascara institution providing the semblance of democratic sovereignty, the judicial system remains a predicament for stability in the face of unrest, with due process remaining elusive. Meanwhile, politicization reinforced the systemic fragmentation and ineffectiveness of Congress and political parties, leading to a ubiquitous structural malady of dysfunctional, impotent, and unresponsive democratically elected political institutions. The faculties of political exclusion of the political system inhibited political and social advancement and an innate incapacity of any two-party government to successfully levy the issue of inequity that continues to stifle the emergence of a stable middle class. Prospective economic development and the integration of the indigenous majority through neoliberal globalization promise the resurgence of an anti-system populist indigenous mass movement and a rift in the delicate equilibrium of the fragile democracy.

2. Historical Background of Guatemala's Political Landscape

Spain colonized Guatemala in 1524, adding it to the Spanish Empire until it gained independence in 1821. Guatemala and its Central American neighbors initially formed a United Provinces of Central America. However, the instability caused by frequent changes of government in the republics led to its disbandment in 1838. Since then, Guatemala’s history has been characterized by a series of authoritarian governments, rebellions, and military dictatorships. (Webre, 2020)

After independence from Spain, Guatemala was economically dominated by the United Fruit Company (UFCO) as an American government-sanctioned monopoly. General Manuel Estrada Cabrera, who reigned from 1898 to 1920, was one of UFCO’s staunchest supporters. In return for amending the constitution to allow UFCO’s land grants, he received a bribe of $11.1 million. Cabrera implemented oppressive measures to quash opposition. After Cabrera, General Jorge Ubico Castañeda continued with Cabrera’s authoritarian rule and consolidation of power. His ever-growing obsession to maintain control led him to worsen citizens’ living and working conditions. Ultimately, Ubico resigned on July 1, 1944. (Clarke, 2020)

After Ubico’s resignation, general elections were held that year, and Jacobo Arbenz became president (1951-54). Arbenz sought to radicalize the reforms initiated by his predecessor and intended to accelerate land distribution with an agrarian reform law and the establishment of cooperatives and tenant farms. Aware of dangers presented by the growing disaffection of the upper classes, Arbenz promised security to the economic elite. He was also aware that any threat to American interests on which Guatemala’s economy rested would not be tolerated, as had been demonstrated with the overthrow of the democratically elected Chilean president Salvador Allende in 1973. Arbenz’ land reform law was intended to be a peaceful and moderate program. Still, it resulted in an immediate land expropriation of 237,000 acres owned by UFCO without any compensation or guarantee and with a reduced price for farms owned by other companies. (Rios)(Vrana & Gibbings2020)

Guatemala’s agrarian reform would cost UFCO $643,000, while all other landowners would receive generous compensation. UFCO’s reaction to the land reform was to instill panic in Washington by claiming the “loss of Guatemala would mean the loss of Central America.” Fearing that Arbenz was a secret communist, the Dulles brothers confronted key members of the Eisenhower administration to demand the withdrawal of American support from Arbenz, whom the CIA immediately labeled “a Red menace.” Guatemala’s disappearing economy and the proliferation of communist propaganda led to the conclusion that the country was ripe for revolution. On June 18, 1954, CIA Chief Allen Dulles initiated Operation PBSUCCESS, a covert operation to overthrow Arbenz. The guerilla leader Enrique Bermudez and a small band of rebels were sent by the CIA to invade Guatemala and advised by Patricio Catalá, head of CIA Latin America operations, a previous torturer of Argentinians and Chileans. (Bryant, 2021)

3. Key Political Players and Institutions

Guatemala's political landscape is a complex interplay of power dynamics among various players, including political parties, interest groups, and influential individuals. The country has experienced significant political shifts since the end of the civil war in 1996, with former political players fading away and new groups emerging to dominate the scene. Fernandez and Ugalde (2008) argue that the fluidity of the newly emerging players in the political landscape has allowed for attractive political alliances, while the resilience of the old players highlights the quasi-monopoly structures based on old ties between business and politics. (Schwartz, 2020)

Political parties in Guatemala can be categorized into three groups based on ideological principles: conservative and right-winged, center, and left-winged. However, the political game is played above ideologies, with interest groups coming before parties. Groups of political party movers have formed in the countryside, provinces, and the periphery, focusing on operational activities rather than ideological affiliations. Interest groups and influential individuals are believed to steer the political game, steering for favorable interests that may or may not match candidate positions and platforms. (Navia et al.2022)

The effects of Guatemalan politics on regional stability are paramount. As a result of its geographical position in Central America, its location as a Bridge and a Gate for the crossings of people and goods, Guatemala has been the object of relative interest by many powers of the world around that influenced her destiny. Therefore, a brief approach on the geographical-historic political frame of Guatemala is surely appropriate. As the influence of overseas territories declines, historical interests that once motivated fleets to navigate oceans are not replaced, and generic political influences have far less historic persistence than economic investments. (Sánchez-Sibony2023)(Ortiz Loaiza, 2020)

4. Current Political Issues and Challenges

A fractured political landscape has left the government of President Bernardo Arévalo facing ongoing attempts to thwart anti-corruption reforms. The proposal to reform the electoral law ahead of legislative elections scheduled for June is controversial, given concerns it could undermine anti-corruption measures. The concentration of political parties in the hands of two allied factions, UC in parliament and FCN-Nación in the presidency, raises questions about the likelihood of such reforms. (Akbar, 2022)

Pressure over attacks on political opposition and a planned constitutional court election is mounting. Meanwhile, the arrest of key anti-corruption prosecutor Juan Francisco Sandoval has drawn condemnation from the United Nations, the Organization of American States, and several countries in the region. Sandoval’s dismissal during the night and without prior notice was viewed as a further assault on rule of law, justice, and democracy. (Alfred, 2021)

Earlier attempts by the Arévalo government to initiate parliamentary investigations of the corruption scandal were thwarted by the ruling coalition in the first week. Worsening forms of censorship targeting media and civil society space further exacerbated the situation. National NGO monitoring group report documented nearly 200 attacks against freedom of expression during the first year of the Arévalo presidency, including arbitrary detentions, physical assaults, and smear campaigns.

The passage of a draconian anti-terrorism law in early May threatened to preemptively criminalize opposition to business interests in the development sector. Guatemala's continued focus on fighting several gender-based violence cases within six separate courts, amid continued complaints of intimidation and harassment against victims, advocates, and lawyers, warrants some degree of concern. (Noorda, 2020)

Election-related violence, including the first political assassination in over a decade, continues to erupt. Belligerent campaigning strategies include controversial catches being employed by some candidates, including bribery and accusations against rivals of links to organized crime, extortion, and drug trafficking.

The impact of climate-induced displacement on migration is exacerbated by the fight against illicit drug smuggling routes. Deforestation linked to drug activity provides incentives to diversify microeconomic develop goals for both states. This situation, compounded by deep-rooted socio-economic and political challenges, threatens to drive the ongoing emigration crisis in the region.

5. Impact of Guatemala's Political Landscape on Regional Stability

Political narration in Guatemala is critical to understanding Central America. A constellation of interrelated forces, actors, and institutions shapes Guatemala’s political realities. Guatemala’s work is largely asymmetric, often favoring established elites and interests. The work relies heavily on the casual and clandestine political action of political brokers and payers. This political landscape will be surveyed. Likewise, Guatemala’s political alibi within democratically sanctioned institutions will be glimpsed. (Booth et al., 2020)

Evaluating whether Guatemala’s political landscape is good or bad will be avoided in favor of a descriptive approach. Guatemala’s political landscape must be understood by assessing how political arrangements came to be this way and for whom they are politically advantageous.

Central America has long lived in the shadow of Guatemala’s problems. Considerable U.S.-sponsored military aid has flowed to the region throughout the course of the Guatemalan armed conflict. Fears of regional instability motivated early interventions, and this largely—in the absence of major Guatemalan efforts at containment—became the primary U.S. justification for continuing support of military hardliners in Guatemala in the face of increased civil repression and outrage over atrocities. (Savell2021)

Strategically located in Central America between North America and South America, Guatemala has long been seen as the political fulcrum balancing a tightrope between u.s co-optation and leftist threat. American ambassador John Campbell summed up U.S ambitions in the region. Getting rid of Castro was not feasible. If Cuban communism were to be controlled in the Western Hemisphere, Central America must be kept free of communism – free meaning within the economic orbit of the United States. Guatemala was thus seen as the cornerstone of American influence in the region. Anti-Communism became the rationale for actions in the region.

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