In the upcoming 2024 Padang Pariaman regent election, three pairs of candidates are likely to emerge. Suhatri Bur from the incumbent camp, John Kenedy Azis (JKA) who has declared his partnership with Rahmat Hidayat, and Muhammad Fadhil, the youngest son of the late Ali Mukhni (Padang Pariaman Regent 2011-2021).

Suhatri Bur is set to receive primary support from the National Mandate Party (PAN). Reportedly, the United Development Party (PPP) is also firmly backing him as a candidate for the 2024 Padang Pariaman Regent, fulfilling administrative requirements.

For Suhatri Bur’s running mate in his second term, the strongest candidate is Yosdianto. Suhatri Bur has previously mentioned to the media that there is an 80% likelihood of partnering with the son of VII Koto Patamuan. However, many believe that Suhatri Bur and Yosdianto are already 100% committed to running together.

On the other hand, John Kenedy Azis has been more forthcoming. He has confirmed Rahmat Hidayat as his running mate for Vice Regent. The young man of Pauh Kamba-Toboh Gadang descent is expected to strengthen their position in southern Padang Pariaman.

For the 2024 Padang Pariaman election, John Kenedy Azis is guaranteed a ticket from the Golkar Party. Naturally, this entails various responsibilities he must undertake. The widespread speculation has placed significant pressure on Suhatri Bur, given his extensive influence.

However, the diversity of opinions remains a mystery until JKA officially declares his candidacy with Rahmat Hidayat. As of now, no party outside PAN and Golkar has confirmed their candidate for Padang Pariaman.

What about M Fadhil, the youngest son of the late Ali Mukhni? This young figure has undoubtedly emerged as a fresh face in Padang Pariaman politics. Rumor has it that the Nasdem party will likely support him.

However, a ticket from Nasdem alone is not enough. So far, Fadhil is rumored to be pairing with a cadre from the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS). If true, Aldino Desra is the most likely candidate to be his partner, as he is the PKS cadre expected to compete in the 2024 Padang Pariaman election.

Nonetheless, Fadhil's position is the most flexible at the moment. There is still a slim chance of him partnering with a PKS cadre, as the National Awakening Party (PKB) also holds a significant number of seats in the Padang Pariaman DPRD from the 2024 election results. It's possible that Fadhil could be paired with a PKB cadre. This will be interesting to watch.

The Incumbent's Strength and Challengers

In political contests, incumbents generally hold a strong position. They have built social networks in the region over time, utilizing available resources. Hence, they are already known as regional leaders, supported by circles that maintain their interests.

This foundation often puts incumbents in a more advantageous position, especially if they have not made any mistakes or blunders during their tenure and have maintained a good relationship with the public.

So far, Suhatri Bur seems to be on track to maintain his position. Therefore, it will require significant energy to challenge the social structure he has built. In other words, only truly smart challengers can face him.

So, are JKA or Muhammad Fadhil those truly smart challengers? The answer will become clear as their campaigns progress, especially once they are officially declared as candidates by the KPU.

From a preliminary perspective, JKA appears to be the smartest challenger so far. His decision to choose Rahmat Hidayat as his running mate may seem weak to some (particularly politicians), but it could facilitate his campaign.

Regarding reputation, JKA’s credentials are also not to be doubted. He has served in the Indonesian House of Representatives (DPR RI) for 10 years and still holds a legislative position. This is certainly a significant advantage, almost on par with the incumbent if he maximizes this role until the end of his term before the election.

What about Fadhil? The third son of the late Ali Mukhni also cannot be underestimated. He seems capable of adopting his late father's militant stance. Fadhil can maximally remind the public of the late Ali Mukhni’s figure.

Furthermore, his presence is prominently visible throughout Padang Pariaman. He appears genuinely ready. This will be further solidified if he secures a strong, reputable running mate. Fadhil could become the dark horse in the 2024 Padang Pariaman election.

Therefore, the notion that three pairs of candidates will lighten the burden may not necessarily hold true. A smart challenger can also benefit from this situation. We will witness firsthand how intense or complex this competition will be, depending on the talents of the three candidates. (*)