The Russia-Ukraine war has now reached a critical stage in which both sides continue to attack each other but are unable neither to achieve a decisive victory nor to significantly change the battlefield map. A prolonged war with no clear winner will obviously drain the resources of both countries and cause ever-increasing casualties among soldiers and civilians alike. This horrific war should have ended long ago; Europe and the rest of the world are exhausted by it.

At the very least, we can agree with President Donald Trump when he says that the Russia-Ukraine war should never have happened in the first place. If this war drags on, there is a real fear that it will escalate into direct conflict between Russia and NATO—a worst-case scenario, because both sides possess the deadliest weapons in human history: nuclear weapons. A Russia-NATO war would make full-scale nuclear escalation impossible to rule out. For that reason alone, the war between Russia and Ukraine must end immediately.

Once a ceasefire and peace agreement are finally signed by both warring parties, the victim in this conflict—Ukraine—must receive iron-clad security guarantees to prevent any future Russian invasion. Several proposals put forward by the United States, Europe, and Turkey (as the main mediator) are reasonably good, but they still fall short of providing Ukraine with truly reliable long-term security.

In my analysis, the best security guarantee for Ukraine comes from the Ukrainian military itself. Ukraine must never be subjected to limits on troop numbers or weaponry, unlike the 28-point peace plan proposed by the United States, which caps Ukrainian personnel. Ukraine has the sovereign right to develop both the quality and quantity of its armed forces without restriction. The United States and Europe should even supply Ukraine with modern, long-range missiles so that any future Russian invasion can be stopped in its tracks. The initiative by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz to jointly develop long-range missiles with Ukraine is an excellent step for European security. The United States could follow Germany’s example by selling a certain number of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. These long-range missiles would not be used for offensive strikes against Russia, but purely as a deterrent—so that if Russia ever attacks again, those missiles could reach Moscow or St. Petersburg.

Furthermore, the modernization of Ukraine’s tanks, fighter aircraft, artillery, and other equipment must be carried out urgently. Soviet-era weapons still in Ukraine’s inventory should be replaced or upgraded to NATO standards. Ukrainian military doctrine must also be aligned with NATO standards, given that Ukraine is destined to become a full NATO member in the future. All these modernization and expansion efforts represent the primary security guarantee that the United States and Europe must prioritize.

The secondary supporting guarantee must come from the United States, Europe, and NATO itself. NATO must make it absolutely clear that if Russia attacks Ukraine again, NATO’s overwhelming air power will destroy every Russian troop and installation inside Ukrainian territory. Every Russian military base in Ukraine would become a legitimate target. NATO would not need to strike targets inside Russia (to avoid direct escalation), nor would it need to deploy ground troops to Ukraine. Air power alone would be sufficient to halt any new Russian invasion. Such action would be purely defensive and aimed solely at preventing future aggression.

Deploying NATO ground forces—American or European—to Ukrainian soil is unnecessary; NATO air superiority is more than enough to protect Ukraine’s sovereignty. Once again, President Donald Trump must make this crystal clear to President Putin: if Russia dares to attack Ukraine again, every military target Russia occupies inside Ukraine will be destroyed by NATO air and missile strikes without exception. NATO would not touch Moscow, St. Petersburg, or Kaliningrad, to avoid direct Russia-NATO war. But Russia must understand that any new invasion would only worsen its position dramatically. Moscow would think a thousand times before trying again.

With these primary and secondary security guarantees in place, we can all hope that Russia will never again embark on an adventure in Ukraine. The consequences of another attack would be far worse than before—not just economic sanctions and political isolation, but direct confrontation with the strongest military alliance on Earth today: NATO. With air power far superior to anything Russia possesses, launching another invasion would be a terrible idea.

President Putin, this time you must make a wise and correct decision for the Russian people, because ordinary Russians do not want war with anyone—they are a peace-loving nation. The same is true of the Ukrainian people, who long for peace so they can return to normal life.