Mortgage rates can fluctuate rapidly. With these unexpected changes, it can be hard to know exactly when to lock in a rate. Could you have saved money if you waited one more month? Or did you stall too long and miss a window of opportunity? Wouldn’t it be easier if there were a concrete way to predict mortgage rates?

No one can predict mortgage rates precisely, but if you pay attention to a variety of factors, you may begin to notice a trend. Unfortunately, even keeping an eye on the trends in mortgage rates will not tell you exactly when it is the best time to lock in a rate.

While it may be impossible to guarantee that you are locking in the lowest available rate, you can get a good interest rate by paying attention to the market and knowing what to look for.

In the past, it was much simpler to predict mortgage rates. They would typically follow the interest rates of corporate bonds, but lag behind by anywhere from six months to a year. And while this would not make it possible to determine the exact mortgage rate, it would provide some insight into whether mortgage rates were trending up or down.

This method was very effective when a bank or credit union made a loan and held that loan for the duration of the term. Today, that is not how lending works.

A mortgage is originated at a local bank, but it is then bundled and sold. Because mortgages are now considered investment vehicles, it is important that the interest rates be competitive enough to attract attention from potential investors. The mortgages are pooled into an investment group called mortgage backed securities.

These securities have the same type of appeal as bonds, and the interest rate is typically comparable to that of a ten-year treasury bond. While the interest paid on a mortgage-backed security is higher than that of a ten-year Treasury, they will typically follow the path of the Treasury bond. For example, if interest rates for Treasury bonds drop, expect mortgage rates to drop as well.

Another consideration for predicting mortgage rates is the current rate of inflation. When inflation gets higher, mortgage rates go up too. And conversely, low inflation rates usually mean lower interest rates. There are, however, exceptions to this rule. If the federal government is working to stimulate the economy, mortgage rates may remain artificially low, even as inflation rates increase.

Finally, look at what large, national lenders are doing. Although there is no reason to expect all lenders to follow along with what these large lenders do, they often do. The business section of your local newspaper will probably tell you everything you need to know about what lenders are doing across the nations. Depending on where you live and the economic climate, you may see similar results within days or weeks. While the mortgage rates may not be the same, the trend will be.

While following these basic rules will give you an edge over less informed consumers, there are other factors that will affect your personal mortgage rate. Lenders look at individual borrowers when determining what rate they offer to a customer. A person seeking a mortgage that has exemplary credit, a hefty amount of money to pay for a down payment and some extra cash to pay on points will have a lower mortgage rate than someone who has some blemishes on their credit, little money for their down payment and not enough extra money to pay any points.

It is also important to understand the difference between a fixed rate mortgage and an adjustable rate mortgage. Fixed rate mortgages are typically higher than adjustable rate mortgages. The adjustable rate mortgage may seem like a better deal, but often the adjustable rate mortgage resets at a higher rate than the fixed rate mortgage.

It is important not to waste too much time worrying about mortgage rates. While we all want to save as much money as possible when buying a home, at some point you have to make the commitment to invest the money and close on the loan. While it may seem like a mortgage is a lifetime commitment, in many cases it is possible to refinance a mortgage.

If mortgage rates drop, speak to your lender. Some lenders will expect you to go through the entire lending process again when refinancing, while others will allow you to refinance without a new appraisal, deferring many of the closing costs. If your lender seems unwilling to work with you on this, shop around. You may find a better deal, or you may find that your current lender is more willing to work with you in an effort to keep your loan in house.