• When would the people of Russia, Ukraine and Byelorussia be prepared to

carry out a large war?

• Why was the fall of USSR without blood shed?

During the consideration of the first question you would automatically get

the answer to the second question, therefore, I begin from it.

Let’s consider all orderly: for a beginning – what is such a

large war? What sense we would put into this understanding?

Large war – its

such war as result of which the boundaries of warring government changes and

(or) the warring factions incur large number of people and material

causalities.

Beginning from such understanding of large war and applied it to

not long a go in the past on Russian empire and USSR, large war – it’s Patriotic

war in the year 1812, Crimean (Eastern) war in 1853 – 1856, Russian – Turkey war

in 1877 – 1878, Civil war in Russia in 1917 – 1922 and of course both World

Wars. And also little wars, all possible conflicts and other armed collision you

could count several numbers, but here we would not make mention of all, just

only limit our self after the period of Civil war: before the Great Patriotic

war – it’s Spain, Hasan lake, Halhin Gol and after it – Korea, Vietnam, Egypt

and Afghanistan. Apart from this in USSR in the end of XX century broke out

several internal conflicts: Armenia, and Azerbaijan ( Nagorni Karabakh),

Tadjikistan (civil war) Moldova (Pridnestrovie), Georgia (civil war: Abkhazia

and Southern Osetija) and Russia (Chechnya).

As it could be seen, little wars

within the USSR were many and some of such wars continuous till now, in 2005.

That these wars are large wars for those small countries that were created after

the fall of USSR – it’s another question, question of scale: considering for an

example, Georgia alone out of the whole USSR, her war with Abkhazia would be

taken as a large war. In conformity also with the three Slavic republics of USSR

large war would mean, loses of about million (or more) killed and wounded.

On

the territories of Russia, Ukraine, and Byelorussia were been carried out

fighting actions – everybody aware of Chechnya: Byelorussia, Ukraine never took

part in the war, at the same time Russia and Ukraine are taking part in

conflicts occurring far away (across the sea) under the aegis of UNO.

Such

are the situations of things, at a first glance it looks strange – why for an

example no fighting going on not in the European part of Russia, not in Siberia,

not in Ukraine, not in Byelorussia?

In Siberia it’s clear – the last large

war took place under Ermak in the end of the 16 century, that is the indigene of

Siberia never fought about 400 years back (truly, in the southern Siberia there

was captured war in 1917 – 1922), - in 4 centuries they never fought war, why

would they fight now? But why no fighting in the European part of

USSR?!

Why?! Because have got tired to be at war!!!

Let me explain my

conception.

The Great patriotic war ended in the year 1945 – ended in brutal

blood shedding war in which the nations of the former USSR incurred several

millions loses of people and uncountable material loses. Remember the map of the

German – fascist troop movement: towards November 1942 enemy captured Pribaltic

republics, Byelorussia, Moldavia, Ukraine and part of Russia, advanced to the

north up to Leningrad, in the center – to Moscow, in the south – to Stalingrad

and predgori Caucasus – to the line of Taman – Maikop – Nalchik – Mozdok. And

now no war here (apart from Pridnestrovie) because the great Patriotic war

stormed this area! Prednestrovie – it’s and exceptional case which only confirms

the principle: Nations have got tired of war in the territory of the

USSR occupied with Germans by the end of 1942 and this people do not want to

fight even in 60 years after the war ended.

You could object to

the fact, that wars in the Caucasus and Middle Asia occurred among people with

different religions and because it’s a natural fact that people with on religion

doesn’t fight against each other.. Against this assumption 2 regions could be

mentioned; Tadjikistan (population mainly Moslems) and Georgia (population

mainly Orthodox). In Tadjikistan the Tadjik fought against the Tadjik during the

civil war in 1992: also similar case in georgic in that same year 1992!

Which

means that, national and religious belongs are not the main reasons of the war

in Caucasus and in Middle Asia in the 90s. Further, during the Great Patriotic

war representative of all nations participated, began fighting in the 90s many

representatives as well gave their life for Victory: due to this it shows that

not all the nations in USSR are yet fed up in fighting, at the same time as

observed in the present development of situation, it’s not like that: fed up of

fighting (i.e. tired of war) only a particular part of such nations, and the

people as a whole not fed up. But it follows that the people in Caucasus and

Middle Asia gave all what demanded from them g\for victory, - and this is their

happiness, that for an example Tbilisi never know such battle which thundered

in  Novorossiysk  far away from it!

So, on the territory occupied by German –

fascist troops towards November 1942 not the nations were belligerent, but there

is a question here, when would they fight? Assumption that everlasting peace

fell on this land – its naive: it’s better more to study the history!

It

means that, the major question is when? German began Second World War after the

year 1939 -1918 = 21 years after the end of the former world war; the people of

Yugoslavia began fighting in the year 1991 – 1945 = 46 years after the end of

the second world war; Sweden didn’t fight from 1743 till the current time

(2005), that’s 2005 – 1743 = 262 years – in such case it could be seen from

these examples in relation to the duration of peaceful period that spread on

countries therefore we could not cover all but concentrate on the most important

to us -  territory of European part of USSR.

As a starting point we select

the civil war in the year 1917 – 1922 in Russia. In this war all great nations

in Russian empire participated: the civil war covered almost all the territory

of  Russian empire, apart from Siberia region which is the most strenuous region

for life. In such a case, could be accepted that from the year 1920 the people

in USSR lived in peace. Large war came in the yare 1941 – when the Great

patriotic war began, dividing the territory of USSR into two parts: the first

part – is the territory occupied by the Germans towards November 1942 (the date

when the enemy troops made the most advanced movement) and the second part –

Caucasus, Middle Asia, Siberia and far east.

The nations in the Middle Asia

and Caucasus started fighting in the interval from the year 1988 (Nagorni

Karabach) to 1994 (Chechnya). Approximately, all the conflicts in Middle Asia

and Caucasus began in 1990, and then it means that these nations lived in peace

from 1990 – 1920 = 70 years, that is each of these nations didn’t

experienced large war for a period of 70 years. At the same time

Pribaltic nations, as well as Byelorussia, Ukraine and almost all the European

part of Russia lived in peace only 2005 – 1945 = 60 years: and towards 1990 they

lived in peace only 1990 – 1945 = 45 years!

It follows to be noted again

such fact – in the year 1941 the nations in the European part of the USSR

were compelled to go into war, that is apart from

their private desire they were induced to participate in the war unleashed by

German Hitler – at the same time in 1988 – 1994 the nations in Middle Asia and

Caucasus started fighting without been compelled, that

is apart from internal reasons nobody attacked them. In most of the cases war

busted out in order to became independent (Abkhazia, Southern Osetija and

Chechnya), that means war caused by internal reasons, - the people of these 4

republics were not forced into war: they decided themselves, that they could not

be anymore under “unnecessary” government to them, and took the choice to

separate, and when the situation became highly tense, they went to the extreme

and couldn’t come into an agreement on certain conditions, and  the war began on

becoming  Independence. Among ethnics conflicts (Armenia and Azerbaijan) and

civil (Tadjikistan, Georgia) also could not be called external compelled reasons

– these are all internal conflicts.

Now we could answer both questions.

Question N 1.  When would the people of European part of USSR be prepared to

carry out a large war?

Answer. In 2015 (1945 +70 = 2015).

Explanation.

Over 70 years life without a large war majority of the nations in Caucasus and

Middle Asia have accumulated strength for wars, without been compelled,

therefore logically we would assume that Slavonic states: Russia, Ukraine and

Byelorussia would accumulate similar strength after 70 years, that is towards

1945 + 70 = 2015.

Question  N2. Why was the fall of USSR without blood

shed?

Answer: because the people of |Russia, Ukraine and Byelorussia haven’t

rested enough towards the year 1991 after they ended the Second World

War.

Explanation N 1. The fall of USSR took place on the 8th of December 1991

under the initiative of the leaders of Russia Ukraine and Byelorussia, that is

the republics that 46 years back ended the great Patriotic war – over little

period after it ended (46 years peace in the European part of USSR, lesser than

70 years peace in Caucasus and Middle Asia), therefore these three Slavonic

republics were able to separate in peace.

Explanation N 2. But why the Soviet

Union collapsed “without blood shed’’”?

But during the process of its

disintegration on the territory were several local blood shed

conflicts!

Answer. These were little conflicts on the scale of the whole

USSR. A real ‘”Blood shed” of the Soviet union _ it’s civil war and military

intervention in Russia in 1917 – 1922: during that time people died of hunger,

sickness, terror and in battle (different figures given) from 8 to 13 million

people, up to 2 million people immigrated, industrial production fell to 4 – 20%

at the level of the year 1913, and agricultural production reduced about twice.

If in case that USSR in the year 1991 collapsed ‘”with blood shed, then minimal

number of those that would have been killed and died from hunger and sickness

would have not been lesser than 1 million people (most probably figure – 3 – 4

million).

As observed, this never took place; therefore, the fall of the

Soviet Union was without blood shed.

So, towards the year 2015 the people of Russia, Ukraine and Byelorussia would

prepare for a large war, but would they actively fight? May be the people of

these countries would enter into a large war after a century – in the year 2050

or after one and half century – in the year 2100? Or they would limit themselves

in little conflicts ( in this case I don’t mean “fighting or conflict among

themselves” – in case the wish is there, and war could be caused not only by

misunderstanding neighbors, and as well across the sea!). But perhaps they would

consider peace to war, like an example Switzerland? May be would be so…. The

future is covered with cloud … who knows.. but that towards the year 2015 these

nations would have great power – it’s no doubt! And to which direction the power

would be directed? To better their welfare, or their cultural life or external

aggression, and perhaps all together … I don’t know: now we could discourse

about this only on certain level of probability. But one aspect is clear to me –

discord creates conflict and conflict creates war. Representatives of hundreds

of nationalities fought in the Great patriotic war as a whole, regardless of

little differences separately among their representatives, - and

conquered!

People of different nations, we should live in peace with each

other! Either, if we would not live like this, then our enemies, then our

enemies would feel our weakness and have more hope on own strength; at first

powerful external enemy become more aggressive, and weak external enemy becomes

more insolent, - and then they would instigate in us ethnics fire and attack -

and then together with external war we would have internecine warfare! People,

remember: the land on which our fathers and grand fathers shed their blood

during the Great Patriotic war, gradually dry up under the affectionate rays of

the sun and becomes more and more receptive to fire, towards another fire of the

large war! And if (what shouldn’t be!) it occurs on our land, then the

probability that it would be even more and civil, Great and in all the 3

Slavonic republics have no precise  accepted by all global national idea as if

that which was in Imperial Russia: Orthodoxy, Autocracy,

Nationality.

Therefore now it’s proper to cherish and foster the unifying

tendencies with all, those who sincerely wishes; apart from this, it’s necessary

to put out all possible differences on any level – and to put them out its

necessary to be tolerance, inter compromise and benevolence.

People,

let’s live together and live in peace.