The following are excerpts from a - now seemingly prophetic - article I wrote in August, 2005 about the pending fuel crisis in America while I was living in Iceland.

August, 2005: I read an online article this morning about a ‘war games’ simulation conducted in America showing how fuel prices could soar as a result of certain events, such as terrorist attacks in Saudi Arabia and Alaska, political instability in Nigeria and other scenarios. In short, fuel supplies would be choked, the cost of oil would soar to $120 per barrel, gas would rise to $5.30 per gallon and the U.S. would slide into an economic recession.

April, 2008: Fuel is trading at a record high of approximately $118 per barrel and the national average price for a gallon of gas is $3.56.

August, 2005: Let’s put this in perspective, current fuel prices in Iceland are approximately 110 kronur per liter. At today’s rate of exchange of 64 krona per dollar, the cost of a gallon of gasoline in Iceland is $6.43. Talk about "crisis level" prices! The current U.S. national average for gasoline is $2.21 per gallon that would be 37.8 kronur per liter. If we saw this price at our local gas station, we would be shocked by the amazing deal being offered. We would immediately fill our gas tank to the top and then alert all of our friends. The "crisis level" price of $5.30/gallon as stated in this article,

correlates to approximately 91 kronur per liter. This would still be considered a deal.

August, 2005: It is time that Americans face the reality that their energy policies, attitudes and behaviors need to change. Most Americans believe that driving is a birthright and if they want a 500 horsepower, 10-cylinder, viper-powered sport truck that gets six miles per gallon then, so be it. Wait till these people have to spend $250-300 to fill their 40-gallon (152-litre) tank. The average European is already dealing with what the average American would call "crisis level" gas prices. They do it by purchasing automobiles with small displacement gasoline and diesel engines. Most of the trucks (SUVs) here are diesels, very few are in America. In fact, in many cases, in America diesels aren’t even offered.

April, 2008: The cost to fill a 40 gallon tank would be approximately, and conservatively $142.40 at $3.56 per gallon. Diesel fuel is quite a bit more expensive and many independent truckers are operating at a loss, some have even started staging protests by blocking roads. And, for the first time since 1980, Americans are driving less. Sales of hybrid cars are growing strong but most Americans have a strong bias towards large, inefficient automobiles. Meanwhile, the top three U.S. auto manufacturers are in big trouble as sales of SUVs has dropped significantly and they have not invested enough in the development of fuel-efficient cars that people would actually like to buy.

August, 2005: I am always converting prices in Iceland to U.S. dollars. This is something I should stop doing because I can’t help but be consistently amazed at how expensive things are here. But living in Iceland has taught me to adapt. Yes, fuel is expensive here - so is everything. So, drive a smaller car. I am not saying that Icelanders are somehow inherently more environmentally enlightened than Americans. If you ask me, Icelanders are a lot like Americans: they love their cars and they are major consumers. It’s just that the tax climate and general high costs of life in this country are very prohibitive. And, Icelanders remember more vividly what it is like to go without.

August, 2005: The current consensus is that fuel prices will not stay at this level and will most likely drop again. Many experts claim that this is an issue of refinery capacity, not a lack of oil. Nevertheless, it seems obvious that this is a sneak preview of what’s to come for the world in general and the United States specifically. I don’t know about you, but this sneak preview frightens me. I don’t see much movement in Americans’ willingness to embrace change in the energy arena. We can only hope that they wake up to this looming global reality and that the next U.S. president will be a strong leader, willing to promulgate a more sensible and logical energy policy.

April, 2008: I am not so sure that the US fuel prices are likely to come down significantly anymore. I sometimes fear for the future and wonder what kind of world my children will inherit as oil becomes scarcer and scarcer; we have already fought two wars in the gulf. Could more wars be in our future over energy? If you think we are feeling the pinch now just wait till China and India demand a larger share of the world’s oil output.

Don’t get me wrong, I love cars. I love driving. Part of me is sad and disappointed that I will never get to own the sports car of my dreams. Or, maybe that sports car will be an electric one like the Tesla! But times are changing and if we don’t start moving aggressively towards much greater fuel efficiency standards and other renewable energy sources for electricity, like geothermal, wind and solar, we could have a very bleak future ahead of us indeed.

I recently read that Iceland is one of the few countries that have a solid plan to go 100% non-fossil fuel by 2050. They are already investing in hydrogen powered cars and buses and have one of the first hydrogen fuel stations right in the capital city of Reykjavik. They already get almost all of their electricity needs met by geothermal and hydroelectric power. Wouldn’t it be ironic if this tiny island nation ends up leading the way towards clean and renewable energy economies in the 21st century? Weirder things have happened.